April 1st, 2016 marks the date of a brisk conflict that would later spiral into a deadly conflict in West Asia. The 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, or the Four-Day War, was a conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. This occurred across a border-esque line called “the Line of Contact” along the mountain range of Murovdag. To put it simply, the conflict resulted from a long history of high tensions and diplomatic failure. The two countries have been in turmoil ever since they broke out into war in 1988, which was only ended by a ceasefire crafted and established in 1994. Unfortunately, though, this ceasefire has been breached multiple times. Notably in 2008, 2016, 2020, and even during the current rising conflict between the two.
The stated reasoning by both states was because of land disputes in a long war to gain, or “take back”, their land. During the 2016 conflict, the International Crisis Group assessment stated that Azerbaijan gained "small but strategically important pieces of land". Generally, it seems that Azerbaijan was slightly more dominant during the conflict seeing as they had gained some strategic advantage via positioning. But this notion is not accepted by Armenian forces or the government. Many Armenian analysts argue that there was no clear winner, and it was simply a draw. One of the big things that they point out is that Azerbaijan suffered for their gain of land. Lots of their military infrastructure was destroyed, and a large number of their standing army was also lost. Yet, Moscow has agreed with the general consensus that Azerbaijan attained a vital portion of land.
Speaking of Moscow, they have been the biggest - if not sole - mediator in the long history of conflict between the two. Considering that both states are in such proximity to Russia, it is in the best interest of Moscow to ensure the region’s stability. With this in mind, it shouldn’t be surprising that the conflict de-escalation was done primarily by Moscow. Only a couple of days later, on the 5th of April, both sides reached a ceasefire to stop the conflict. Unfortunately, if we look at the current-day conflict, it is very clear that the two states haven’t remained peaceful and don’t plan on cooperating. For this battle in particular, the U.S. State Department estimates that around 350 people died overall - including military and civilian casualties.
The conflict between the two has only escalated in the current day state of affairs. Even in 2023, we are seeing tensions between the two skyrocket. In September, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia with intentions of diplomatic intervention. But ever since the U.S. has withdrawn from the region, Armenia and Azerbaijan seemingly continue to escalate tensions. Both sides have said that they would be willing to coexist peacefully ONLY if they come to a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which both have alluded to requiring intervention from a larger power. But for some reason, neither side seems to be effectively working with Russia nor of the European Union currently. The reasoning could be due to Russia selling arms to both sides of the war, the Ukrainian war, and possibly just a hardening of stances on both sides.
The importance of this conflict cannot be understated. It dates back all the way to the Armenian genocide that killed millions, and it may escalate into another mass killing. Genocide watch issued a warning on the conflict due to Azerbaijani threats of “ethnic cleansing” of the Armenian population. The conflict between the two - other than threatening a modern genocide - could destabilize the entire West Asia region. Considering the instability of the region, with Yemen, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and many others, such a conflict can get especially dangerous. We must remember our past, look to current events, and learn from them. If there is no Russia to step in like there was in 2016, what will happen? This day in history was a learning experience, let’s not forget it.
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